A Turkish Conspiracy Theory

I wonder if the Turkish Phantom deliberately crossed into Syrian airspace in order to precipitate a crisis which in turn would create the casus belli (justifiable reason for war) to attack Syria. Why? It would provide the excuse Islamist Turkey needs to invade Syria and with opposition support overthrow the murderous, tyrannical Assad regime. Of course it must be admitted that there is a possibility that they could get bogged down in an Iran/Iraq style war of attrition. But if the Turks win through as saviours of the Syrians they would show themselves to be the champions of the Muslim people.

Having gained significant street cred, the Turks might be hopeful that it could reignite excitement over Ottoman imperial ambitions – the idea being that the caliphate is safer in their hands than in those of any other Muslim nation

Time unfortunately is not on Turkey’s side because Iran is very likely to reach the potential for challenging them in terms of military power fairly soon and Egypt may not be too far behind.

The Egyptian military in coalition with the Turkish Islamists could, in the short term, forge an alliance that benefits both.  Iran with the nuclear bomb is a wild card which creates concerns for both Arabs and Turks because the Iranians have a superiority complex that is outside of their Islamic identity and even overrides it. On the theory that the enemy of your enemy is my friend, it could be used to unite all the other Arab factions.

So if Turkey does not have much time then precipitating a conflict with Syria could demonstrate its strength and its influence as the major player in the Near-East, significantly more influential than Israel. This will position it as the true Islamic superhero who will reassert Islamic pride.

In terms of developing a strategic relationship with its Arab and Muslim neighbours Turkey’s bluster does seem at odds with the relative insignificance of the provocation (not withstanding the tragedy of the probable deaths of the two pilots on board the Phantom). But Turkey went to NATO and invoked article 4 which provides for consultations by the allies when one of them is attacked or threatened. (see below):

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

All of this may seem rather extreme unless there is something further afoot. We could speculate that NATO was happy with the provocation that gives Turkey the chance to take care of the Syrian problem for them and this may demonstrate that it is in Europe’s advantage to accept Turkey as a full member of the European Community. Of course this would mean sacrificing Greece (the basket case) and Cyprus (partitioned since the Turkish invasion of 1974) for the sake of having on board an Islamic ‘power’ that can be its surrogate in the Muslim world.

Turkey can then be positioned as being integral to solving Islamic problems that Christian Europe and the USA cannot and will not become involved with. Clearly this will further enhance their prestige and increase their influence in the Muslim world.

The cream on the cake for the New Ottomans (having vanquished Greece, who were the first to gain their independence from the Old Ottoman empire in 1821), would be to reacquire Israel, which was also a part of their empire.

Speculation can also act as warning. With so much change and disruption across the globe there is nothing we can afford to ignore.