The Syrian Civil War presents
Western nations with an opportunity to redress the balance within tribal Muslim
nations in favor of tolerance and also to show their rejection of religious extremism in all its
disguises.
But in order for this to happen,
world powers will need to recognize the special instability of the region and
to take steps to reduce its potency.
Russia will not willingly discard
its $10 billion investment (allegedly the cost of construction of its naval
base) in Tartus. It is Russia’s only Black Sea Group naval port in the Mediterranean Sea.
To lose its base and any of its most modern weapons is a serious issue
for Russia
and one that will be handled with critical care. Syria
received new defense systems from Russia
after Israel bombed Syria’s nuclear
reactor. It received Russian S300
missiles which are allegedly not yet operational. After the defection of a
Syrian pilot with his plane, to Jordan,
it is doubtful that Russia will
permit Syria
to operate any of its most sophisticated military hardware.
So Russia needs President Assad to
protect its strategic naval interests. Russia will have to decide whether the conflict
(as it extends into the decade) causes greater damage to its regional interests
by maintaining support for Alawite control of Syria. This may mean it has to
settle for the dismemberment of the Syrian nation and a tribal enclave that
maintains Alawite territorial integrity within a diminished Russian
protectorate. But even that is not guaranteed because Russia is pursuing
its strategic interest in mutually hostile nations. Cyprus,
Turkey, Israel and Syria
are all focus of long term interest by Russia.
Russia
has always supported Nicosia’s claims against
the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). This slab of land taken by force from Cyprus by Turkey
is recognized by no-one, save Turkey. Cyprus
is being courted by Russia
both for its newly discovered energy resources and for the strategic
possibility that Russia, if
it loses its base at Tartus could replace it with one on Cyprus. According to Stratfor
(http://www.stratfor.com/) Russia
is trying to woo Cyprus and
this complicates bilateral relationships because of the extensive ties that Turkey also has with Russia.
Turkey is known to be actively
interfering in Syrian affairs in order to encourage the kind of activist
resistance that is more in line with its own Sunni theology.
This is an area where America
has failed to grasp an historic opportunity to create a strategic partnership
with Russia
to jointly manage naval facilities. Cooperation rather than competition
(between the USA and Russia) is the only way to defuse tension in the
Mediterranean Basin. It is
the next stage in Detente between the two great nations.
Big Power cooperation would cause
others to pause before interfering militarily, and may even constrain Muslim
colonial ambitions. With 46,000 km of
coastline and as a destination for over one third of the world’s tourists it is
in the interest of everyone to de-escalate the potential for strategic
conflict.
What complicates the picture
further is the unnatural relationship that the United
States has with Turkey, an imperialist nation swept
up in its own hubris, nourished by its vainglorious, malevolent past. Turkey’s eagerness to play out past
glories makes it untrustworthy as an ally. But the US
has a radar base in Turkey
which for now gives it a seven minute window on the Iranian missile threat
towards Europe from Iran.
And now we have the added
dimension of America
arming anti-Assad rebel forces. CNN
reported United States
military support for Syrian rebels will include small arms, ammunition and
possibly anti-tank weapons, according to two officials familiar with the
matter. The weapons will be provided by the CIA, the officials said.
Israel
is strengthening its military, economic and political ties with Greece and Cyprus. The recent discovery of huge reserves of oil
and natural gas around Cyprus
has whet a Turkish appetite for territorial aggrandizement. Turkey’s bellicosity towards both Cyprus and Greece is indicative of its
inability to let go of its belligerent nationalism, its need to dominate. Turkey’s
fearless Islamic Imperial past, its bloody history of oppression towards both
nations has endowed it with the false certainty that it has rights of
precedence. Repeated threats that clearly deny Cyprus
its rightful territorial sovereignty are indications that Turkeys’
colonial avarice makes for aggressive intemperance in national policy.
Israel’s
fraught relationship with Greece
is complicated by the antisemitism of both the extreme left-wing and the
extreme right in Greece. Eastern Orthodoxy has not had reason to
undergo the kind of spiritual reflection and upheaval that was created by the
Second Vatican Council (Nostra Aetate).
This leaves the Greek Orthodox Church with an unreconstructed
anti-Jewish legacy that it is incapable of leaving behind.
So the recent news story that Israel has signed with Cyprus for the construction of natural gas
facilities when Turkey was
the natural choice may be both recognition that Turkey
is a lost cause but Turkey’s
fellow former colonies are not.
In the 1950’s Arab scholars referred to Israel as “Syrian Soil.” Syria fought four wars against Israel and after the Yom Kippur War in 1973 it agreed that there would be no future attacks on sovereign Israeli territory that emanated from Syrian territory. In the 40 years that have passed since then – there has been no infiltration by terrorists through the Golan Heights. The Syrians kept their word because it was in their interest to do so. The activity of Syria’s proxies was another issue entirely.
In the 1950’s Arab scholars referred to Israel as “Syrian Soil.” Syria fought four wars against Israel and after the Yom Kippur War in 1973 it agreed that there would be no future attacks on sovereign Israeli territory that emanated from Syrian territory. In the 40 years that have passed since then – there has been no infiltration by terrorists through the Golan Heights. The Syrians kept their word because it was in their interest to do so. The activity of Syria’s proxies was another issue entirely.
Israel’s
unfortunate reality is that it has no friends in the Near
East – it only has interests. Its strategic (long term) decision
making must be based on historical perspective, the likelihood for positive
change, and not short or medium term political or monetary benefit. Whoever wins in Syria
will make little if any difference to Israel’s threat assessment.
As a non-Arab, non-Muslim nation,
the overthrow of one government for another cannot replace enemies with
friends. Israel
and Russia
are not on the same page but they can talk to each other. Russia
and Israel
both act in accordance with their perceived strategic interests. The USA does not. This has been its
greatest failure in the foreign policy arena. Islam will remain an enemy of
Western civilization because it has never had to confront its global
subservience to religious bigotry. No
amount of ingratiation with theologically hostile regimes (and this does include
Turkey)
will change that.
Al-Nusr and the FSA are fighting
a war that pits brother against brother and communities against each
other. The Vietnam War was a fratricidal
war, Iraq and Afghanistan are
similar. There is no end in sight to
either of these latter, national, fraternal theological battles. And so with Syria, no-one has discussed, at least publicly, how, we may defang the militants on both sides.
The one surprise to have recently
emerged from the Syrian debacle was the Russian announcement that it had
withdrawn all of its military personnel from Syria (RT.com 27th June
2013). If this is true it indicates that
it is abandoning its Alawite ally to its fate. The pessimistic view would be
that Syria may seek an
escalation with Israel
which would damage the Sunni cause in Arab eyes. Russia
would not want to put itself into the firing line because it would complicate
its relationship with Israel. Or it may have decided to write off its
Syrian investment and to look elsewhere.
If Syria was an opportunity for us to
demonstrate our wisdom, there has been none shown to date. We have left the battleground to Islamic
Nazis whose destabilizing influence will spread past the borders of whichever
country they infest.
Russia
and the USA
hold the keys to a secure, placated region but only if they are willing to
exercise military restraint and police the borders. It would also send a message to other
colonial aspirants in the region.
And it would demonstrate why our Western
vision is better than anyone else’s. If this means that we reject the failed
multicultural model of current Western inclination then we must demonstrate why
we reject it and why, what we offer in its place is so demonstrably superior.
It is sadly true that we no
longer fight for our shared values and this is causing us incalculable
damage. I am not calling for misinformed
jingoism or nativist militancy but for calm reflection about what choices we,
as a civilization, are making. Arming
the barbarians at our gates is the wholly illogical reflex of a less dangerous
age.