Hezbollah effectively controls Lebanon,
if not administratively then by its optional use of terror. No one dares stand up to the militias and if
they do there is always another civil war (1975-1990) to contemplate.
Syrian chaos has led to a loss of control over Lebanon and has opened it up to al-Qaida influence and therefore further competition between Sunni and Shiite militancy. This will in turn escalate tensions creating a tinderbox that could reignite the Lebanese Civil War. Last time around Lebanon lost at least 150 thousand dead, a further 1 million wounded, some 350 thousand internally displaced and another 1 million people who permanently abandoned their country. When we consider that twenty-two years on from the end of the civil war, Lebanon has only 4 million inhabitants, these statistics represent a monumental tragedy. Even today the dead represent some 4% of the population. In Britain with 62 million people, that is the equivalent of 2 ½ million dead and 15 million refugees.
At the time of the Syrian invasion of Lebanon, Haffez al-Assad produced a list of 800 Christian leaders that he decided must be ‘brought under Syrian control’. In Lebanon’s ‘Night of the Long Knives’, Assad’s thugs decapitated the Christian political and military leadership of the country with this single act of wholesale murder. The UN did not discuss it, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International failed to utter a single word of complaint. The Vatican, The Worldwide Church of England, the Methodist and Episcopal hierarchies; the Global clergy, all in fact remained silent.
Syrian chaos has led to a loss of control over Lebanon and has opened it up to al-Qaida influence and therefore further competition between Sunni and Shiite militancy. This will in turn escalate tensions creating a tinderbox that could reignite the Lebanese Civil War. Last time around Lebanon lost at least 150 thousand dead, a further 1 million wounded, some 350 thousand internally displaced and another 1 million people who permanently abandoned their country. When we consider that twenty-two years on from the end of the civil war, Lebanon has only 4 million inhabitants, these statistics represent a monumental tragedy. Even today the dead represent some 4% of the population. In Britain with 62 million people, that is the equivalent of 2 ½ million dead and 15 million refugees.
At the time of the Syrian invasion of Lebanon, Haffez al-Assad produced a list of 800 Christian leaders that he decided must be ‘brought under Syrian control’. In Lebanon’s ‘Night of the Long Knives’, Assad’s thugs decapitated the Christian political and military leadership of the country with this single act of wholesale murder. The UN did not discuss it, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International failed to utter a single word of complaint. The Vatican, The Worldwide Church of England, the Methodist and Episcopal hierarchies; the Global clergy, all in fact remained silent.
Is it any wonder therefore, that
then as now, everywhere, terrorism is regarded as a right and a strategic
weapon to be employed by the Arab and Islamic faithful?
It has become one of the best
known clichés of our time and one of humanity’s most derelict truths:
“First they
came for the Communists, but I was not a Communist so I did not speak out. Then
they came for the Socialists and the Trade Unionists, but I was neither, so I
did not speak out. Then they came for the Jews, but I was not a Jew so I did
not speak out. And when they came for me, there was no one left to speak out
for me.”
- Martin Niemoller
For Israel
the choice could eventually be between sharing a border with Pakistan (al-Qaida) or Iran (Hezbollah) in the North and in Gaza. The fragmentation of the Arab world does not
necessarily presage the disintegration of the Arab world but it does mean a
long period of violent conflict with the entire region engulfed in crisis. The
Arab spring was meant to deliver democracy (at least in our Western dreams it
did) but the reality is turning out to be the replacement of dictatorship with (fascist)
Islamic theocracies.
Ethnic tensions are now focused
on Shiite and Sunni, between heretical sects of Islam and fundamentalist Muslim
Nazi bigots; on Christian minorities used to sharing power (as in Syria) and
those Christians previously ‘protected’ by sympathetic dictators (as in Egypt,
Libya and Iraq). Other minorities, such
as the Kurds, are also experiencing renewed persecution (as in Turkey). Those
who would love to live in a democratic country stand naked and defenceless
against Islamists whose disgust for democracy is only second to their hatred for
those proposing it.
Lebanon is a microcosm of the
Islamic world.
A popular Arab expression goes
“First comes Saturday and then comes Sunday” (We will ‘deal’ with the Jews first
and then we will ‘deal’ with the Christians). Meanwhile the Arab Spring has
ruined the strategy in spite of the pragmatic obeisance to authority and
hierarchic intolerance that corrupts Christian behaviour in the Arab
world. Christians are no longer a veil
to disguise the true intent of Muslim regimes.
As a propaganda vehicle they barely serve the purpose of demonstrating conditional
tolerance to the Christian West as attacks against them escalate and increase
in ferocity.
If, before the Arab Spring each
regime brutalised its own people the difference is that today brutalisation has
been privatised. Extremists of all shades reassert a visceral hatred for those
with whom they disagree.
You cannot depoliticise conflict
when it is predicated on ethnic, ideological and theological differences. Politics
is drenched in historic memory, much of it mythic. Faith ignores fact.
News fatigue is the excuse we
give to describe an event that is played out on our television screens for
longer than is deemed to be worthy of attention. Unfortunately, this can be
translated as meaning no more than a journalists boredom with the subject,
their cowardice (after the probable targeted killing of two foreign journalists
in Syria, in February this year), or their refusal to report the news because
it conflicts with their world view. It
has left the Christians of the Islamic world both unprotected and in mortal
danger. Just as ethnic cleansing and elimination of the Jewish presence in the Muslim
world was theologically and politically inevitable, once Israel came into existence, the empowerment of
Islamic fundamentalism has similarly created a momentum for the end of
Christianity outside of everywhere except, of course, Israel.
By advocating its own version of triumphalist
identity politics, with all that it entails the Arab Spring is inextricably changing
into a Winter of Repression and fundamentalist realignment. And while Islamists will use the political
interregnum as a period of distraction to focus on settling accounts with
minimal fuss and press coverage, at this time all Israel can do is to batten down the
hatches.